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Sunday, May 7th 2006

8:01 AM

Thoroughbred: Kentucky Derby closer than it looked.

This year's Kentucky Derby looked like a stellar field but most people who watched the race will tell you that Barbaro was clearly the best horse in the race. I have to admit that coming into the race, Barbaro looked like a potentially great horse. And he won the race impressively. But, let's not forget that there were 20 horses in the race and several had brutal trips. Considering the fact that it was a 20 horse field, Barbaro had a dream trip, an easy trip. A horse that impressed me was Brother Derek. He also came into the race showing the potential to be a great horse. Starting from a very tough outside post 18, Brother Derek raced anywhere from 6 to 10 wide the entire race including around the turns. Despite that brutal journey, he rallied wide coming into the stretch and finished 4th. And now we find out that he lost a shoe on his front right foot during the race. I thought that Brother Derek ran one of the most impressive wide trip races I've ever seen in a stakes route race. I can't remember ever seeing a horse race that wide for that long and still make a strong run. If Barbaro and Brother Derek both run in the Preakness, they should put on quite a show.

So far every professional analyst on TVG, NBC, and print media, has only talked about Barbaro as if all the other horses in the race did nothing. Some have already declared that Barbaro is going to win the Triple Crown. Although I understand their enthusiasm, it was a strong performance by Barbaro, I feel that they are jumping to conclusions. Maybe it's because of my years of chart calling. When I watch a race, I watch all the horses in the race. This is difficult in the Derby, but this year I have the race taped and NBC provided an aerial view as well as the regular shot, plus another view with the camera isolated more on the winner.

Some people have mentioned that the pace was "brutal." Was it? Coming into the race, everyone expected a hot pace. But the pace was about what you'd expect from top colts. I checked over the Derby splits for the past 10 years, dating back to the 1996 Derby, and there were 6 Derbys that had faster spllits. Last year, for instance, they went 22.1, 45.1, 109.2. This year the fractions were 22.3, 46, 110.4. Althought that's pretty quick for a 10 furlong race, we have to realize that these are supposed to be the best 3yo's in the world. Barbaro has to be given credit for tracking an honest and fairly quick pace and still having a strong stretch kick.

But before jumping to conclusions, let's see what the Beyer figure is. I think the race will come up with a strong figure, but not a Secretariat-like number. Barbaro did not prove that he is a superhorse. He proved that he is a very good horse. Maybe a great horse.

Other horses besides Brother Derek had bad trips. Sweetnorthernsaint got all messed up at the start and made a powerful middle-move to reach contention but flattened out. He could be dangerous in up coming races.

Showing Up had a decent trip and no excuse, but he finished 5th, and considering the fact that it was only his 4th lifetime start, he is a horse with uptapped potential.

Barbaro still has a lot to prove before he can be mentioned in the same breath as Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Citation, etc. Personally,  right now I'm not convinced that he's better than Brother Derek. Think I'm crazy? Well, let's say we reverse the posts, and Barbaro starts from post 18 and races 6 wide the entire race and 10 deep around the turn, and Brother Derek starts from post 8 and gets the same dream trip that Barbaro did.

11 total comments.

Posted by Ira Sobel:

Bob, as I have been saying the past 30 years, you have the BEST eye in the business. Thank you for the 2006 Preakness winner, Best Regards
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