Well, another Del Mar and Saratoga summer is over. I was busy, it takes longer to handicap during the summer because the fields are bigger and the races are just tougher to handicap. I can't wait to get to Vegas and chill out for a week.
I haven't had time to do the stats yet, but there's no question that my Sharphorses Selection Service picks showed a substantial profit at both Del Mar and the Spa. Saratoga started off brutally tough so I didn't give that many horses out there the first few weeks. Those of you who subscribe know that my service is not about getting action, we're out to win. I ended up on a nice hot streak at Saratoga and I had a bunch of longshot winners at Del Mar, which is my favorite meet.
A couple of observations. First, Del Mar. I heard a lot of handicappers complaining about the Polytrack, and obviously Bob Baffert and his big owner the Zayat stable shipped some horses to Saratoga to avoid it. But the bottom line is, Del Mar had a hugely successful meet and the handle was up 3% from last year. Obviously the Polytrack didn't scare off that many bettors. The track also played safer, which is why they put it in in the first place. I still think if you have a good horse and you are a good trainer your horse will win over the Polytrack. But trainers do have to learn how to prepare their horses for it. It seems to me that a horse needs to be very fit. On dirt, you'll often see first time starters, or layoff horses, win off only 4 or 5 workouts, and sometimes the works are 3 and 4 furlongs. You don't see that pattern winning over the Polytrack. A horse needs longer works, and more works to be properly conditioned to win at first asking, or off a layoff. Baffert actually ended up having a pretty good meet, after a slow start, even though he shipped some of his best horses out.
Now to Saratoga. They got lucky with the weather this year, which was great because those rainy days really kill the cards because of all the turf races. A few things I didn't like, too many 5.5f turf races. I also didn't like the 5f turf races at Del Mar, most of which were won wire to wire and were not exciting. Personally, I think Saratoga cards too many turf races. The turns are tight and a lot of horses get bad trips. We'll look to bet back some of those wide trips over the bigger Belmont turf courses.
I'm happy for Cornelio Velasquez. He's been the leading rider at other meets, but to win the meet at Saratoga has to be huge for him. What a sensational meet he had. I gauge a rider by how many longshots he wins with, and Cornelio won with so many longshots during the meet that he had a big positive ROI. He's a great rider on dirt or turf. He's aggressive, but I really think the reason why Cornelio is so good is because of natural God given talent. Some riders just get more speed out of horses. Cornelio is a better rider than Johnny Velasquez, who is overrated, in my opinion. A lot of jockeys are overrated and a lot of jockeys are underrated. You can't go by win percentage because once a rider gets hooked up with a major stable, he's going to win a high percentage. Jockeys who consistently win with slow horses are the real deal.